Tesla’s recent prototype unveilings—the Cybertaxi, Robovan, and Optimus Robot—mark a significant progression towards integrating advanced technology platforms with revenue-generating mobility solutions. The question for all of us is, how does this change the future? What are the opportunities created?

Tesla’s new prototypes are emblematic of the convergence of AI, computer vision, robotics, and energy storage:

AI and Computer Vision: Each product leverages Tesla’s advanced AI for autonomous operation. The absence of traditional driving controls in the Cybertaxi and Robovan underscores Tesla’s confidence in its AI’s capability to navigate complex environments, a technology shared with Optimus, which uses AI to precisely mimic human actions. The evening demonstration showed how it makes drinks for guests.

Robotics: The Optimus robot, with its bipedal design, showcases Tesla’s ambition in robotics. It is designed not just for novelty but for practical applications like sorting batteries, hinting at broader industrial and commercial uses. The demonstration video showed the Robot in the home and the footage from the evening showed the robot dancing, serving drinks, demonstrating it’s finger dexterity etc.

Tesla’s latest prototypes and products (incorporating FSD12.5.6), including the Cybertaxi, Robovan, Cybertruck, and long-haul trucks, represent a significant expansion of their robotics capabilities into mobility. 

Each vehicle will have the capacity to leverage Tesla’s advanced real-world AI capacity for autonomous operation, showcasing the potential for the technology and providing a glimpse into what personal transportation will look like.

For investors, how will the future of transportation change? What are the investment opportunities for changing the infrastructure requirements?

Most people straight away make 2 comments. 1) No one will insure that! Tesla solved that with their own insurance product and 2) Governments won’t regulate that! Tesla, now have 10’s of Billions of km of data to compare with existing data on humans for regulators to compare with. Current numbers have their FSD, at 1000% safer than a human driver. For many regulators, this will be hard to ignore.

Energy Storage: Tesla’s advancements in battery technology underpin all these products, offering greater efficiency, reduced costs, and sustainability, which are crucial for the economic viability of electric and autonomous vehicles. Tesla’s energy business and battery cell innovation is rarely talked about.

Tesla’s energy storage business has experienced exponential growth, deploying 14.7 GWh in 2023, a 125% increase from the previous year, with profits nearly quadrupling. This sector’s growth outpaced Tesla’s automotive business, with energy storage deployments reaching a record 9.4 GWh in Q2 2024 alone, nearly matching the total for all of 2023. This surge is driven by increased production capacity, including new Megafactories, indicating Tesla’s energy storage segment is not only booming but also becoming a significant profit center, potentially outgrowing its automotive counterpart in the near future.

The implications for mobility and logistics markets are vast:

Cybertaxi and Ride-Hailing: ARK Invest projects a future where autonomous ride-hailing could generate trillions in revenue, with Tesla potentially at the forefront. ARK’s analysis suggests consumers might pay significantly more per mile for autonomous services, valuing travel time at $18 per hour. This suggests a lucrative market with Tesla’s entry potentially capturing a significant share due to its technological edge.

Robovan and Logistics: This vehicle could redefine cargo transport, from urban deliveries to long-haul logistics, reducing human labour costs and increasing efficiency. ARK’s valuation models suggest that if Tesla effectively launches its Robotaxi fleet, there will be a considerable increase in widespread adoption probability, influencing logistics on a similar scale.

Long-Haul Opportunities: While not directly unveiled, the technology underpinning these products sets the stage for Tesla’s entry into autonomous trucking, an area where ARK sees substantial financial opportunities.

Tesla’s 4680 battery cells represent a significant leap in energy density and cost efficiency, potentially setting them apart from competitors like CATL and LG Chem, who are also advancing but with different technological approaches. While competitors focus on enhancing existing technologies, Tesla’s dry electrode innovation could redefine battery manufacturing standards if scaled successfully.

Tesla’s vision extends beyond selling vehicles:

Autonomous Fleet Utilisation: Owners can turn their vehicles into revenue-generating assets by integrating them into Tesla’s network for ride-hailing or delivery when idle. ARK Invest’s $2,600 per share price target for 2029 reflects this optimism, driven by the belief in Tesla’s robotaxi service profitability.

Optimus as a Revenue Stream: Leasing or selling robots for industrial or commercial use could become a new business vertical, with Tesla potentially leading due to its early mover advantage in practical AI and robotics applications.

Data Monetisation: The data collected from these autonomous operations could become invaluable, further enhancing Tesla’s revenue through insights or service improvements.

Full Self-Driving Software Licensing: Tesla licensing its full self-driving software to other manufacturers could revolutionise the automotive industry, enabling widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles and creating new revenue streams for Tesla. 

Other Vehicle manufacturers who dont have access to the same quality of engineers, data (Billions or km’s of real-world data) and technical leadership, are likely to License Tesla’s software for their own solutions.

Conclusion

Tesla’s prototype launch isn’t just about showcasing new gadgets; it’s about setting the stage for a comprehensive ecosystem where technology serves mobility, logistics, energy storage and personal income generation.

Although some consider ARK Invest’s projections optimistic, they underline the significant financial opportunities these technologies represent. Elon Musk’s optimistic timelines often garner attention, yet the Tesla team consistently delivers on his ambitious goals despite initial delays.

For investors, Tesla’s direction offers a glimpse into a future where mobility solutions not only transport people and goods but also serve as pivotal assets in generating continuous revenue, positioning Tesla as a potentially dominant player in this transformative market.